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The Conscience of Thoroughbred Racing

HALLANDALE BEACH, FL, September 15, 2022 —  With Kentucky Downs lamentably in the rear view, Belmont and Churchill get their Fall meets underway as Woodbine gets ready to host its impactful Breeders’ Cup prep program.

We’ve got lots of work to do, per usual, but today we’ll start with a brief overview of some of the action before completing our Tote Busters plays later this weekend, as the simulcast racing wheel spins round and round.

It appears the weather will cooperate in New York as NYRA’s downstate weekend gets underway with the G3 Jockey Club Oaks Invitational and G3 Jockey Club Derby Invitational which means only one thing: The Euros are coming; the Euros are coming!

North of the border, meanwhile, there are three significant events and today we’ll take a handicapping look-in at the Pattison G1 Summer Stakes for juvenile colts.

in Ozone Park, the six-filly Jockey Club Oaks boasts three sophomores holding winning cards: McKulick (4-5), Toskana Belle (7-2) and Beside Herself (4-1).

An endurance test at 11 furlongs, only the favorite has failed to compete at Saturday’s distance. The other two fillies have competed in marathons and both have succeeded.

The Jockey Club Derby also attracted only a half-dozen, and three of those are in with the best chance: Nations Pride (1-1), Classic Causeway (2-1) and Ardakan (4-1). We begin at our old stomping grounds.

BELMONT AT THE BIG A

JOCKEY CLUB OAKS                     Race 7

The Skinny:  1-McKulick is one of two Grade 1 winners in here, having won the Belmont Oaks, but here she’s asked to go one more furlong and is odds-on to do it. There was no video available for 4-Toskana Belle’s Group 1 effort in Dusseldorf but Andres Wohler in no stranger to New York’s winner’s circle, and neither is Frankie Dettori. 6-Beside Herself galloped them to death to win a Spa allowances at a mile and a half; forward looking

MOST PROBABLE WINNER:  McKulick

POTENTIAL VALUE PLAY:  Toskana Belle

STRAIGHT WAGERS and EXOTICA:  Exacta Box 1-4-6. Toskana Belle to win at 3-1 or greater.

CAESARS JOCKEY CLUB DERBY              Race 10

The Skinny: 3-Nations Pride (1-1) and 1-Classic Causeway (2-1) know each other very well. The latter got away soft in the Belmont Derby and stole it but Nations Pride evened the score by winning the G1 Saratoga Derby. At 12 furlongs the edge goes to the European as Frankie will try to sweep both turf stakes. 6-Ardakan (4-1) was third in a German Group 1 last out but, again, no video to access. We’re unfamiliar with the connects, but the horse is bred both sides to run as far as races are written.

MOST PROBABLE WINNER:  Nations Pride

POTENTIAL VALUE PLAY:  Ardakan

STRAIGHT WAGERS and EXOTICA:  Exacta and Trifecta Wheel 3-6 // 1-3-6. Cold Trifecta 3-6-1. Exacta Box: 3-6. Ardakan to win at 4-1 or greater.

WOODBINE             

PATTISON G1 SUMMER STAKES      Race 7

The Skinny: Once again, it will be a local hero against a European ship-in. Kevin Attard’s 6-Philip My Dear (2-1) not only won both lifetime starts but did so rallying between horses each time–a great trait in a young horse—stretching from six furlong to six and a half in his second start.

1-Mysterious Night (6-5) won a Group 3 in France on soft ground last out but we were taken with his prior when third in a Group 2 at Goodwood on good ground. On that occasion, the Dark Angel colt was a little keen, William Buick let him go on with it but consequently was in a drive the entire length of the stretch, succumbing only in the last 50 years to two late ralliers.

MOST PROBABLE WINNER:  Mysterious Night

EARLY LINE VALUE: 4-Chiseler (12-1)

STRAIGHT WAGERS and EXOTICA:  Exacta Box: 1-6 Exacta Wheel 1.6 // 1.4.6. Cold Exacta: 1-6. Trifecta Wheel 1 // 6 // 1.4.6.7** [the original ‘ALL’ for third remains an option]. Betting Mysterious Night to win, price restrictions.

The Skinny: The battle of the Woodbine-undefeated! Both 5-Souper Sensational (3-1) and 9-Lady Speightspeare (2-1) are a perfect 2-for-2 on the Woodbine Tapeta. Of the two, the favorite has a conditioning edge given the turnback. But this is more than a two-filly affair. 7-Hazelbrook (8-1) is a gaudy 5-for-7 over this ground and Barbara Minshall is 23% profitable with her turn-backs, as is the case with 8-Dreaming of Drew (5-1)

MOST PROBABLE WINNER: Lady Speightspeare

EARLY LINE VALUE: Dreaming of Drew

STRAIGHT WAGERS and EXOTICA: Exacta Box: 5-7-9. Exacta Box: 5-8-9. Trifecta Key-Box Lady Speightspeare first and second: 9 // 5-7-8. Superfecta Wheel: 9 // 5-7-9 // 5-6-7-8-10 // 5-6-7-8-10. Value Straight Play: Dreaming of Drew to win at 5-1 or greater.

The Skinny: There’s truly one overwhelming stat to consider when handicapping Woodbine’s prestigious turf mile. Charles Appleby points for this race, especially since and Win-and-In event, giving connections a virtual free ride into America’s World Championships. Appleby has won five Grade 1s at Woodbine and brings with him last year’s winner of the Breeders Cup Juvenile, 5-Modern Games (7-5). Yes, he’s meeting older and in 2-Ivar’s (4-1) case, faster on the Thoro-Graph scale. But that’s what weight allowances are for and with all the speed signed on, Modern Games rates to get the right setup.

MOST PROBABLE WINNER: Modern Games

STRAIGHT WAGERS and EXOTICA: Cold Exacta 5-2. Exacta Box 2-5. Trifecta Wheel: 2-5 // 2-5 // 2-3-4-5-6-7-10. Superfecta Key: 5 // 2-3-4-5-6-7-10. Value Straight Wager: Ivar to win at 7-2 or greater.

Churchill Downs’ graded stakes for juveniles to come …

All suggested exotic wagers are at available minimums. Straight wagers are $2 units.

this is a live column to be updated throughout the weekend

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