Belmont Stakes 154 features a talented field of eight entrants highlighted by Kentucky Derby moonshot 80-1 upset winner Rich Strike.
Despite the shocking victory, the late running colt is not among the top two betting choices on the morning line. Instead, the Eric Reed trainee lands as the early third-overall betting at 7-2 odds.
Oddsmakers have installed the lightly-raced We The People as the 2-1 morning-line favorite. The son of Constitution with Flavien Prat aboard will attempt to clear the field from the opening break and make the speedy colt the clear one to catch.
The question easily becomes: Will the filly Nest or the rapidly improving Creative Minister be sent early to challenge for the opening lead? Will aggressive jockey Irad Ortiz have Mo Donegal running mid-pack as opposed to his normal deep running closing style? If We The People is allowed to sit alone on the lead for the majority of the race, will any of these talented closers find any pace to close into?
Let’s dive in and take a deeper look at breaking down the last leg of the Triple Crown known as the "Test of the Champion."
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Start Time: 6:44 p.m. ET Racetrack: Belmont Park - Elmont, N.Y. Date: Saturday, June 11, 2022 Purse: $1.5 million Distance: 1 ½ mile, Dirt Race: 11 Post Time: 6:44 p.m. EST / 3:44 PST TV: NBC
No. 6 Mo Donegal (5-2): This talented son of Uncle Mo was my top-rated horse heading into the Kentucky Derby, but the dreaded rail kept me from backing him. The Wood Memorial winner is the one to beat in the Belmont Stakes. He beat Preakness winner Early Voting in the Wood Memorial. Mo Donegal has been training really well in his morning workouts leading up to Belmont and there is a quiet buzz he could be sitting on a monster effort Saturday. The Belmont Stakes has historically not been a favorable race for deep closers, so my guess is one of the best jockeys in the world - Irad Ortiz Jr. - will have him more forwardly placed than in any of his previous races and closer to mid pack as opposed to closing from the clouds. Pick
No. 3 Nest (8-1): Trainer Todd Pletcher, who earned his first of three career Belmont Stakes wins in 2007 with the filly Rags to Riches, will be looking to repeat the feat with Nest. The talented gal heads into the Belmont Stakes off a runner-up finish in the Kentucky Oaks and is easily the best value play in the field at 8-1 odds. Her Equibase Speed Figures are competitive with this group of eight and this daughter of Curlin is a legitimate contender that could make the Belmont Stakes an all-Pletcher exacta. Nest joins Mo Donegal in giving Pletcher two of the top justifiable threats to hit the board Saturday. Bettors should not overlook the five-pound weight relief she gets on the entire field racing at just 121 pounds while the rest of the field will be saddled with a weight of 126. Contender
No. 1 We The People (2-1): According to my formula, the likely pacesetter of the 154th running of the Belmont Stakes is a vulnerable favorite. This son of Constitution was last seen winning the Peter Pan Stakes over this track May 14 in impressive wire-to-wire fashion, romping by double-digit lengths. As the lone front-running speed, Prat will send him hard from the rail and try to repeat his eye-popping performance in the Peter Pan Stakes. However, this inexperienced colt will be taking a step up in class and at short 2-1 odds he is a play against on top of any tickets. Vulnerable Favorite
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No. 5 Creative Minister (6-1): Ken McPeek’s entry could be the one staking We The People for the majority of the race and his forward position makes him a solid option to play in the underneath spots. The connections for this rapidly improving colt decided to pay $150,000 to earn his spot in the Preakness and he didn’t embarrass himself in any way with a third-place finish. Creative Minister’s win in an allowance-optional claiming race on the undercard on Derby Day earned him an eye-opening 108 Equibase Speed Figure. That number is the best among the entire field in the 154th running of this year’s Belmont Stakes. Sneaky
No. 8 Barber Road (10-1): Barber Road, who went off at 60-1 moonshot odds, impressively finished in sixth place in the Kentucky Derby and offers solid exotic value to hit the bottom rung of the tote board in the Belmont Stakes after three runner-up efforts as well as a third place finish (0-3-1) in five 2022 races. Bettors also find added value thanks to jockey Joel Rosario landing in the irons. Rosario has won the Belmont Stakes twice (Tonalist –2014; Sir Winston – 2019). Look for Barber Road to potentially spice up trifecta and/or superfecta tickets at double-digit odds. Exotic Player
No. 4 Rich Strike (7-2): Jockey Sonny Leon has never rode at Belmont Park and that could be a big issue on a track that is rarely kind to inexperienced riders at this distance. Rich Strike enters the Belmont Stakes in career-best form but the value has simply vanished on the talented colt in this spot at short 7-2 odds. Trying To Beat
No. 6 Mo Donegal No. 3 Nest No. 1 We The People
No. 5 Creative Minister No. 8 Barber Road No. 4 Rich Strike
This race will boil down to whether any of the deep closers can run down the pacesetter No. 1 We The People? My formula has him struggling to repeat his performance in the Peter Pan Stakes at this distance against these foes. I also have to fade Kentucky Derby winner No. 4 Rich Strike at these extremely short odds after not having him at 80-1 odds. The value on Rich Strike is now non-existent.
My tickets will involve using No. 6 Mo Donegal (5/2) on top of No. 3 Nest (8/1), No. 1 We The People, as well as No. 5 Creative Minister and No. 8 Barber Road. My formula is also very high on the filly Nest at this distance and I believe Pletcher could very well fill out the exacta with both of his entrants Saturday.
TOP Exacta BOX: 6-3-1-5-8
TOP Trifecta Part-Wheel: 6 with 1,3,5 with 1,3,5,8
SPREAD Trifecta Part-Wheel: 6 with 1,3,5,8 with 1,3,4,5,8
Frankie Taddeo is a successful high-stakes fantasy football player who created the first-ever DFS program ever offered in a Las Vegas sportsbook. Frankie is SI Betting's Senior Analyst and provides his significant experience and resources in the sports betting scene. You can follow Frankie on Twitter @Frankie_Fantasy for his latest betting and fantasy insights from Las Vegas.
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